NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT IN PERIL: CURRENT STATUS AND LOOMING CHALLENGES

Abstract

Background: Since the end of the Cold War, nuclear arms control has undergone profound challenges due to weakening treaties and rapid military innovations. The expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 and the near-lapse of the New START Treaty in 2021 created a dangerous vacuum in global security frameworks. Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and the West, have escalated fears of renewed arms races that jeopardize decades of achievements in disarmament and nonproliferation.

Objective: The study aimed to evaluate the consequences of weakened arms control mechanisms in the post–Cold War era and to assess the potential pathways for strengthening strategic stability through renewed dialogue and treaty frameworks.

Methods: A qualitative research design was employed using thematic analysis to examine a wide range of secondary sources, including international treaties, governmental reports, non-governmental policy papers, and academic literature. Inclusion criteria required documents to directly address nuclear arms control, disarmament, and strategic stability. Data were coded iteratively, with triangulation from multiple sources to ensure credibility and minimize bias. Ethical standards of scholarship were upheld, and no human participants were involved.

Results: Findings revealed that global stockpiles reduced dramatically from nearly 63,000 nuclear warheads in 1986 to approximately 8,300 today. However, Russia and the United States remain responsible for more than 90% of these weapons and continue expansive modernization programs, including new missile systems, submarines, and strategic bombers. The study identified that the absence of effective verification protocols was a major factor in the collapse of the INF Treaty, and without the renewal of New START to at least 2026, a further erosion of transparency and trust is imminent. Additionally, the integration of emerging technologies—hypersonic weapons, ballistic missile defense, and cyber systems—was found to destabilize the traditional notion of mutual vulnerability.

Conclusion: The study concludes that arms control remains indispensable for global security and stability. Renewing the New START Treaty and integrating broader issues such as third-party arsenals, advanced delivery systems, and space- or cyber-based military capabilities are critical. Strengthened verification measures and revitalized multilateral dialogue are essential for reactivating NATO–Russia cooperation and advancing a verifiable, sustainable path toward disarmament.